Cobalt Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: New Research Uncovers Global Risks
Cobalt’s pivotal role in powering electric vehicles and energy storage systems has never been more critical. However, recent research reveals that the global cobalt supply chain is far more fragile than previously understood. Disruptions in a single country or production stage can ripple across the network, potentially causing widespread failures that affect multiple regions and industries.
Researchers utilized a combination of material flow analysis and a multilayer shock propagation model to uncover that initial risks often arise in the upstream segments of the supply chain. These risks become most significant at crucial refining and manufacturing bottlenecks. The study highlights that disruptions can propagate through both horizontal and vertical pathways, as well as through direct and indirect connections, leading to extensive disruption chains. This suggests that traditional methods of assessing risk on a country-by-country basis may not fully capture the vulnerability of the cobalt supply chain. Coordinated global strategies are required to enhance its resilience.
Rising Demand and Increasing Supply Chain Risks
The surge in electric vehicles and large-scale energy storage has resulted in a significant rise in cobalt demand. This has heightened concerns over supply security, geopolitical concentration, and environmental and social challenges.
While many studies focus on individual countries, materials, or trade flows, the modern supply chains are intricately interconnected. Recent incidents such as export restrictions, trade disputes, and pandemic-related disruptions have underscored how local issues can rapidly escalate into global production network challenges.
Many current analytical methods fall short in explaining how disruptions traverse different countries and production stages simultaneously. This limitation underscores the necessity for a more comprehensive, network-based approach to understanding cobalt supply chain vulnerabilities.
Exploring the Global Cobalt Network
A study published in Environmental Science and Ecotechnology in late 2025, conducted by researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Peking University, the University of Southern Denmark, and others, examined global cobalt flows from 1998 to 2019.
The research team developed a multilayer supply chain model and employed an iterative shock propagation framework to trace how disruptions travel across countries and through six stages of the cobalt life cycle, including mining, refining, manufacturing, usage, and recycling. This analysis provides a comprehensive examination of systemic risks in the global cobalt supply chain.
To execute the study, the researchers constructed a network connecting 230 countries across six interconnected production stages. By integrating trade-based material flow analysis with a dynamic shock propagation model, they simulated how a supply shortage or demand drop at a single point could impact the broader system.
Their simulations indicated that disruptions often spread through alternating direct and indirect pathways, crossing international trade links as well as domestic production chains. Mining disruptions, especially in concentrated upstream regions, frequently serve as the initial risk source. However, the most severe impacts typically occur later at refining and manufacturing “bridges,” where dense connections between production stages amplify failures.
Unseen Interdependencies Heightening Vulnerabilities
The study revealed that the potential “avalanche network” of failures is approximately four times denser than the physical trade network. This indicates hidden interdependencies that are not evident when solely examining trade relationships.
Countries like China and the United States exhibited particularly high levels of systemic fragility. Disruptions originating within their supply chains could lead to widespread failures globally. Simultaneously, several countries with relatively modest production volumes were found to be highly susceptible to random disruptions and lacked adequate resilience to respond effectively.
Furthermore, the study identified a long-term trend of increasing risk. Over two decades, global cobalt supply vulnerabilities have become more volatile while generally increasing, driven by growing concentration within the supply chain and supply-demand imbalances.
The “Robust-Yet-Fragile” Nature of the Cobalt Supply Chain
The researchers described the cobalt supply chain as “robust-yet-fragile.” This implies that while the system can withstand numerous small, random disruptions, it remains highly vulnerable to targeted shocks affecting critical nodes.
Measures such as national stockpiling programs or efforts to relocate production may reduce risk for individual countries. However, these actions could inadvertently shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the network rather than eliminating them entirely.
Enhancing resilience, the researchers argue, necessitates coordinated strategies that account for the connections between upstream and downstream production stages. Focusing solely on national interests without considering these broader relationships could inadvertently exacerbate instability across the global system.
Impact on Energy Security and Clean Technology
The findings carry significant implications for energy policy, critical mineral management, and industrial planning. By pinpointing where risks originate, accumulate, and spread, the framework could support early warning systems for supply disruptions and foster international collaboration.
Policymakers could leverage these insights to develop shared stockpiling programs, diversify refining and manufacturing capacities, and better evaluate the broader effects of trade restrictions or economic decoupling strategies.
Although this research centers on cobalt, the same methodology could be applied to other critical materials essential for battery production and clean energy technologies. Ultimately, the study suggests that a successful transition to a low-carbon economy will depend not only on securing access to essential resources but also on understanding and managing the complex global networks through which these resources flow.
Original Story at www.sciencedaily.com