Hurricane Lala set to hit Hawaii; climate change sparks concern

The storm is set to hit Hawai‘i as a hurricane this Saturday, a rare event, fueled by this summer's El Niño.
How Is Climate Change Shaping Hurricane Lala?

Hurricane Lala Poised to Make Historic Landfall on Hawai‘i’s Big Island

As Hurricane Lala approaches Hawai‘i’s Big Island, experts are analyzing the storm’s potential impact, which marks the first hurricane landfall in the area since 1992. This significant event has drawn attention to the evolving climate patterns affecting the region.

Traditionally, Hawai‘i’s mountainous terrain, with peaks reaching up to 13,000 feet, has acted as a natural barrier against tropical storms. Retired University of Hawai‘i professor Tom Giambelluca once explained that the island’s geography made it “like a rock in the stream,” redirecting storm paths. However, the dynamics are shifting as climate change introduces new variables.

This year’s intensifying El Niño is a key factor behind Hurricane Lala’s development. Scientists, including Alison Nugent from the University of Hawai‘i, suggest that the current El Niño cycle serves as a “practice run for climate change,” indicating a trend toward more frequent and intense storms as global temperatures rise.

Ocean surface temperatures to the south of Hawaiʻi island currently sit between 80.6 and 82.4 Fahrenheit. (Courtesy: National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center/2026).

Historically, cooler ocean temperatures and wind shear have helped dissipate storms before they could reach hurricane strength near the islands. Yet, with ocean temperatures now ranging from 80.6 to 82.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the conditions are ripe for hurricanes to gain power.

The potential for more hurricanes in the Pacific is supported by past climate models. Over the past decade, three out of five storms that have made landfall in Hawai‘i occurred, reflecting a predicted increase in hurricane activity.

A long dark mostly demolished building sits next to a highway with the ocean in the background. In the foreground is standing water and debris.
Kaua‘i’s iconic Coco Palms resort, seen here in March, was destroyed by Hurricane Iniki in 1992 and has yet to be rebuilt. (Craig Fujii/Civil Beat/2026)

Meanwhile, the debate continues on how exactly climate change is influencing the El Niño phenomenon and its effect on storm patterns. According to Steven Businger of the University of Hawai‘i, the relationship between these factors is not fully understood, though it’s clear that warmer ocean surfaces are contributing to the potential for stronger hurricanes.


The paths of tropical storm and hurricanes Dot, Iniki, Iselle, Darby and Olivia, the largest storms to make landfall in Hawaiʻi since 1959.

Historical records, dating back to storm events in 1871, provide context for the current situation. Reports from Hawaiian-language newspapers detail the devastation caused by past storms, underscoring the potential for significant impacts from Hurricane Lala.

As the island braces for possible impact, scientists anticipate conducting attribution studies to assess the influence of human-caused climate change on the storm’s intensity. According to Businger, the current warm ocean temperatures could persist, potentially setting the stage for further storms in the near future.

Original Story at www.civilbeat.org