Rising Temperatures Threaten Global Food Security, New Research Reveals
As the planet’s temperature edges closer to a 2°C increase, the number of countries experiencing severe food insecurity could nearly triple, according to a recent analysis.
Research conducted by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) highlights that the climate crisis will disproportionately impact food systems in economically disadvantaged nations, further widening the disparity between vulnerable and secure countries.
While global warming poses a risk to food security across the world, low-income countries are predicted to experience a decline in their food systems at a rate seven times faster than that of wealthier nations.
Ritu Bharadwaj, an IIED researcher and author of the study, emphasized, “Countries already facing poverty, fragility and limited safety nets are projected to see the fastest deterioration in food systems, despite having contributed the least to global emissions.”
Bharadwaj noted that nearly 59% of the global population currently resides in nations with below-average food security, and climate change could exacerbate this divide. To prevent such outcomes, she suggested enhancing social protection systems to quickly respond to climate shocks, investing in climate-resilient agriculture, and improving water and soil management.
She further explained, “Food systems today are deeply interconnected. Climate shocks in one major producing region can ripple through global supply chains and trigger price volatility elsewhere. Even if high-income countries remain relatively food secure, they will not be insulated from the impacts of climate instability on global food markets.”
The IIED developed a Food Security Index that evaluates the systemic vulnerability of food systems in 162 countries. It projects how climate change might affect these systems under temperature increases of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C above pre-industrial levels.
The index examines the climate crisis’s impact on four critical aspects of food systems: availability, accessibility, utilization, and sustainability. Among these, sustainability and utilization are most sensitive to climate changes, indicating that initial damage will manifest in water, sanitation, and health systems, potentially leading to malnutrition even when food is available. Additionally, rising climate risks are expected to reduce food access due to increasing prices and market disruptions.
Countries such as Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti, and Mozambique are anticipated to be among the hardest hit. In these regions, food insecurity could rise by over 30% under a 2°C warming scenario, resulting in acute crises and famine, while in high-income countries, the increase would average 3%.
On average, food insecurity in low-income countries is forecasted to increase by 22% under the 2°C scenario. These nations contribute only 1% of global emissions, while high- and upper-middle-income countries are responsible for over 80%.
Bharadwaj pointed out that “High-income countries will experience massive agricultural shocks, but they have the wealth to buy their way out of a domestic crop failure on the global market.”
She also referenced a report by British intelligence chiefs concerning threats to national security posed by the climate crisis, stating, “If fragile and conflict-affected states face a systemic collapse, the result is massive global instability, state collapse, and forced migration. That is the national security threat the defence chiefs have warned about.”
Original Story at www.theguardian.com