The global fleet of offshore wind installation vessels could help achieve up to 400 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. This would require additional vessels and favorable market conditions, according to a scenario study by the Kuehne Climate Center. The study highlights that newbuild investments are mainly needed in markets outside China, which already has a robust fleet for its domestic market.
The analysis reveals that the current wind turbine installation vessel (WTIV) and heavy lift vessel (HLV) fleet, along with vessels on order and projected new builds, could enable the installation of approximately 320 GW of new offshore wind capacity by 2030. This would increase the global installed capacity to around 400 GW under favorable conditions.
The report states that this represents a potential vessel capacity, not a projection of actual deployment, with outcomes dependent on supply chain readiness, market conditions, and political ambition.
The study notes that ambitions to reach 500 GW offshore by 2030 are unlikely due to fleet availability, investment lead times, and market constraints limiting installation logistics.
“From the vessel fleet’s perspective—ignoring other factors—achieving the 2030 goal of 500 GW is unattainable,” the report states, proposing scenarios where regions could achieve 80 to 85 percent of the target, resulting in about 400 GW of fixed-bottom capacity globally.
China’s offshore vessel fleet is seen as capable of achieving 225 GW by 2030, mainly by coordinating demand and supply without significant new investments. Optimizing existing vessels plays a crucial role in this scenario.
Outside China, the report suggests that the global market, primarily led by European operators, needs annual investments of EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 4 billion for new vessels over the next three years to reach about 175 GW installed capacity by 2030.
Without these investments, the non-Chinese fleet could support only around 140 GW, reducing the global total to approximately 365 GW.
The report highlights that offshore wind logistics are divided into two markets: China’s domestic fleet and internationally classed vessels operated mainly by European firms. This separation limits regional vessel capacity sharing.
Growing wind turbine sizes are a key factor, with an increasing mismatch between turbine development and vessel capabilities. While new vessels are equipped for next-generation turbines, developers often use commercially ready models.
“Previously, turbines grew faster than vessels. Now, vessels anticipate further growth and could install larger turbines coming out in 2025/2026 than currently available,” Stefanie Sohm from Kuehne Climate Center explains, noting that vessels operate under capacity until larger turbines are commercially viable.
The analysis also emphasizes vessel deployment strategies for efficiency. Coordination across projects and regions has been limited but could enhance installation volumes and reduce costs without fleet expansion.
Research by consultancy Panticon suggests improved forecasting and regional coordination of vessel deployment could increase efficiency and accelerate installations.
The report concludes that installation vessels are just one part of the offshore wind supply chain, with port infrastructure, manufacturing capacity, and market conditions also crucial in achieving the 400 GW target as a best-case scenario rather than an actual forecast.
Original Story at www.offshorewind.biz