Nevada is one of the most competitive election battlegrounds in the country — a state where razor-thin margins, a surging bloc of nonpartisan voters, and a complex early voting landscape make predicting outcomes genuinely difficult. With Election Day approaching, here is a factual breakdown of what the data and insider reporting suggest about the state’s most consequential races and what they mean for voters across the Silver State.
Veteran Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston, who writes the Ralston Reports column and has covered Nevada politics for four decades, has published his pre-election forecasts since the early 2000s — maintaining roughly a 90 percent accuracy rate in major races. He missed the presidential call in the last cycle, but correctly called five other federal races. His analysis this cycle reflects a dominant theme: an early-vote advantage for Democrats that could reshape outcomes up and down the ballot.
What the Early Vote Numbers Are Showing
Understanding how Nevada elections work is essential for voters following these races. Nevada allows early and mail-in voting well before Election Day, and the running ballot return totals — tracked through a data-driven blog updated regularly — offer a picture of which party’s voters are turning out ahead of time. This cycle, Democrats have built substantial early vote leads, including a 13.4 percent ballot advantage in Clark County (which includes Las Vegas) and a 5-point lead in Washoe County, which leans slightly Republican.
These numbers matter because early votes are counted and reported after the polls close on Election Day. In 2022, Republicans overcame Democratic early-vote leads by turning out 47,000 more voters on Election Day itself. Whether that pattern repeats in 2024 is one of the central questions shaping every race.
The Governor’s Race: A Test of Crossover Appeal
The most closely watched contest in Nevada this cycle is the gubernatorial race between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford. Lombardo won in 2022 by running a disciplined campaign and narrowly defeating then-incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. His team began attacking Ford early, running sustained negative ads around Ford’s travel expenses and a pardons board controversy to drive down his favorability with soft Democrats and independent voters.
Despite those efforts, the early-vote environment has shifted dramatically. As one member of Lombardo’s team explained back in July, the political headwinds tied to the top of the ticket were always a concern:
“If the guy in the White House was named Joe Smith, this would be a 15-point race. Instead, it’s a 5-point race.”
The Democratic Governors Association has since made a substantial ad buy, and the “It’s time for Joe to go” messaging has gained traction. Ralston’s forecast gives Ford a narrow edge — 46 percent to Lombardo’s 45 percent — with nonpartisan candidate Danielle Ford drawing around 4 percent and the “None of These Candidates” option (a unique feature of Nevada ballots) pulling roughly 5 percent. The outcome may not be known on Election Night; mail ballots received after Election Day could determine the final result.
Other Statewide Offices: The Wave Hits Downballot
Across Nevada’s constitutional offices, the early-vote advantage is projected to benefit Democrats significantly.
In the race for Attorney General, State Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D) is forecast to defeat Republican Adriana Guzman Fralick, with a projected margin of 50 percent to 44 percent. For Lieutenant Governor, Assemblywoman Sandra Jauregui (D-Las Vegas) is expected to unseat incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Stavros Anthony, 48 percent to 43 percent. In the race for Treasurer, Democrat Tya Mathis-Coleman is forecast to edge Republican Drew Johnson 48 to 44 percent, while Republican incumbent Controller Andy Matthews — credited with doing a solid job in office — may nonetheless lose to Democrat Michael MacDougall simply due to the strength of the ballot environment, 48 to 46 percent.
The Secretary of State’s race is notable for different reasons. Republican Jim Marchant, who has repeatedly promoted false claims about election integrity and was endorsed by allies of the former president, is forecast to lose decisively to incumbent Democrat Cisco Aguilar, 52 percent to 39 percent. Election administrators and voters should note that the Secretary of State oversees elections in Nevada — making the qualifications and credibility of candidates for that office especially consequential for the integrity and administration of future elections.
Congressional Races: Three Safe, One Wild Card
In Nevada’s four congressional districts, three incumbents are expected to win comfortably. Current data shows those races are over, with double-digit ballot leads for the incumbents in Districts 1, 3, and 4.
Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) is projected to hold CD1 over Republican challenger state Sen. Carrie Buck, 50 percent to 41 percent. Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) is forecast to win CD3, a district that Donald Trump carried narrowly, over self-funder Marty O’Donnell (R), 49 to 44 percent, with Independent American Party candidate Jon Kamrath drawing 7 percent. Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) is expected to hold CD4 comfortably, 52 to 42 percent, as national Republicans declined to invest significantly in challenger Cody Whipple.
The most uncertain race is CD2, a heavily Republican district — Trump carried it by 14 points — where retiring Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) leaves an open seat. The Republican nominee, David Flippo, has faced a string of reported controversies including questions about undisclosed finances, stolen valor allegations, and irregularities with his donor list. Despite that, the district’s demographic composition is expected to favor the Republican, with Flippo projected at 46 percent against Democratic former Assemblywoman Teresa Benitez-Thompson at 44 percent and Independent American Party candidate Lynn Chapman at 10 percent. If Chapman’s support climbs toward 12 to 15 percent, the outcome becomes far less predictable.
State Legislature and Local Races
At the legislative level, Democrats are forecast to hold or expand supermajorities — as many as 28 to 32 seats in the Assembly and a 13-8 advantage in the state Senate. Local elections expected to be decided include mayoral races in Reno and North Las Vegas, and a Clark County Commission seat.
Ballot Questions 6 and 7 are forecast to pass easily, though the final days of counting — including mail ballots that arrive after Election Day — will determine exact margins across all of these contests. Nevada voters should be aware that final results in close races may not be confirmed until days after Election Day, which is a normal and legally authorized part of the state’s election process.
For Nevadans who want to stay informed on election results and ongoing coverage, donate to support The Nevada Independent’s 501c3 nonprofit journalism or learn more about membership to help sustain independent elections reporting that keeps Nevada voters informed.