In anticipation of a potentially record-setting El Niño this winter, Los Angeles County emergency management officials are gearing up for potential severe weather conditions. Historically, El Niño events bring increased rainfall and ocean swells to Southern California, heightening the risks of flooding and mudslides.
Current Observations
El Niño has already been identified in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with meteorologists indicating a 90% probability of a strong occurrence in the region this year.
Understanding El Niño
El Niño years are often associated with heavy rainfall in Southern California, though heavy downpours are not guaranteed. The critical factor is the volume of water and the duration over which it falls. Notably, since 1950, many of the highest flood-related costs occurred in non-El Niño years.
This El Niño is expected to align with the peak of a nearly 20-year cycle called “the declination of the moon,” leading to the year’s highest tides, as noted by Scripps scientist Mark Merrifield.
The warming effect of El Niño on the ocean also temporarily raises sea levels. Combined with human-induced global warming, which has increased sea levels by up to a foot along California’s coast over the past century, it intensifies normal weather patterns.
According to climate scientist Daniel Swain, “The risk of coastal flooding is actually very high and almost guaranteed.” Inland areas face similar threats, particularly near waterways, due to increased rainfall driven by El Niño and human-caused climate change.
Preparations by Local Authorities
To prepare for the impending weather, the county’s Office of Emergency Management has scheduled an El Niño response drill on September 13, involving various county departments and community disaster coordinators. “Most importantly, the exercise will allow us to identify gaps and response actions that we can continue to work on throughout the storm season,” stated Kevin McGowan, director of L.A. County’s OEM.
Los Angeles County Public Works is actively inspecting and clearing flood control infrastructure, such as storm drains and debris catch basins, to ensure readiness by October 15. They are also monitoring areas affected by the Eaton and Palisades fires, which are particularly vulnerable to flooding and mudslides. Public Works Director Mark Pestrella advised homeowners to be vigilant about older burn scars.
Community Actions
At atmospheric river in February 2025 had residents and firefighters clearing mud in Sierra Madre. Emergency managers are warning Southern Californians could be in for a wet winter, with recent burn scar areas of particular concern.
Mario Tama
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Residents, particularly those in flood-prone areas, are encouraged to purchase flood insurance, as it’s not typically included in standard policies. Now is also the time to repair leaky roofs and ensure proper drainage.
Officials have also outlined measures to safeguard low-lying coastal areas from flooding and erosion, especially along the Pacific Coast Highway. Additionally, efforts are being made to improve flood preparedness and shelter availability for unhoused individuals in vulnerable regions.
While precise predictions of rain timing and location remain elusive, emergency managers are preparing comprehensively for whatever this winter’s El Niño may bring.
Original Story at laist.com