As Texas grapples with the aftermath of severe flooding in the Hill Country, a significant omission in Gov. Greg Abbott’s special session agenda becomes apparent. While climate change isn’t explicitly mentioned, its influence is unmistakable in discussions surrounding the disaster.
In the wake of the July 4 flooding that tragically claimed at least 135 lives, Texas lawmakers are tasked with addressing issues like flooding infrastructure, alert systems, and disaster preparedness. Yet, the underlying factor, climate change, is often met with skepticism or dismissed entirely.
While climate change wasn’t the direct cause of the recent floods, it undoubtedly exacerbated the situation, as scientists have established a link between warmer air and increased rainfall, leading to severe flooding. The Hill Country, known as Flash Flood Alley due to its unique geography, is particularly susceptible to such weather. The addition of warmer air, holding more moisture, creates a volatile environment for dangerous storms.
Ignoring scientific research and climate models may lead to inadequate preparation for future storms, leaving public officials expressing surprise when these predictable events occur. The recent flooding should not have been unexpected, given the historical precedence and climate models predicting more extreme weather.
Texas’ political landscape, dominated by the oil and gas industry, often rejects climate change acknowledgment. Republican lawmakers, reluctant to mention climate change, are nonetheless expected to devise policies and allocate resources to prevent future disasters.
Efforts to address the flooding must be comprehensive. Simply implementing an alert system without considering the impact of climate change and extreme weather on flood zones would be superficial. Lawmakers need to treat the July 4 disaster as a significant warning rather than an isolated incident.
‘So damn dangerous’
The Hill Country’s vulnerability to flooding arises from its location along the Balcones Escarpment, which spans 450 miles from Del Rio to the Dallas area. This geological feature marks the transition from the Great Plains to the Edwards Plateau, creating an environment conducive to extreme weather fluctuations.
Char Miller, a professor at Pomona College, notes that the region’s climate oscillates between deluge and drought, influenced by weather systems like El Niño and La Niña. The convergence of warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico with the region’s geography triggers intense storms.
The Hill Country’s landscape, with its limestone hills, intensifies flooding. When heavy rain falls, the water rushes over the limestone, creating dangerous currents in rivers. The region’s susceptibility to drought further exacerbates flooding when the parched earth can’t absorb water efficiently.
Andrew Dessler, an atmospheric sciences professor at Texas A&M University, emphasizes that climate change is “loading the dice” for heavy rainfall events. Increased atmospheric moisture due to climate change aligns with predictions made long ago by climate models.
Recent analysis by ClimaMeter reveals that conditions leading up to the flooding were 7% wetter than historical averages. The Fifth National Climate Assessment highlights the increasing drought risk in the Southwest alongside more extreme rainfall. An update to the report, “Extreme weather in Texas, 1900-2036,” predicts a 20% increase in extreme rain events by 2036.
Public officials describing the recent storm as a once-in-a-lifetime event may need to rethink their stance, as more frequent extreme weather is anticipated. Dessler warns that rebuilding efforts should account for future occurrences, especially in a state where climate change remains a contentious topic.
State of denial
The Texas Hill Country disaster demands a coordinated response from all levels of government. However, the prevailing political climate is often dismissive of climate science. The federal government has taken down the National Climate Assessment website, and state lawmakers have proposed legislation that could hinder renewable energy development.
Bill Blackburn, former Kerrville Mayor, acknowledged the role of climate change in the recent storm, but noted that it remains a divisive topic in Kerr County.
Outdated Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps contribute to the problem, as they fail to account for increased rainfall and climate risks. Many properties in Kerr County, including those at Camp Mystic where several lives were lost, are inaccurately mapped outside flood zones.
Updating flood maps and incentivizing flood insurance are crucial steps. Local governments can use current rainfall data to identify flood-prone areas and restrict development. Additionally, purchasing high-risk properties in flood zones can prevent future disasters.
Past experiences provide valuable lessons. Cities like Austin and San Antonio have successfully bought out and cleared properties in flood-prone areas, reducing future risks. Such proactive measures highlight the importance of addressing climate change in disaster response strategies.
Original Story at www.statesman.com