Across Asia, families find themselves stranded on rooftops, while homes disappear under waves of swift mudslides. The picturesque landscapes of green hills now bear the scars of deep brown craters. These dramatic transformations are the aftermath of a relentless monsoon season, marked by powerful cyclones and storms that have swept the region, destroying vital infrastructure and reshaping the terrain.
The severe weather has resulted in the tragic loss of at least 1,200 lives over the past week, displacing a million people who remain uncertain about the fate of their homes upon return. This escalating pattern of deadly weather events in Asia is intensified by the effects of carbon pollution, which is warming the planet. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) review predicts that as temperatures climb, South and Southeast Asia will experience more intense rainfall and a significant rise in flood frequency, particularly in monsoon-affected areas.
Roxy Koll, a climate expert at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and contributor to the latest IPCC report, notes a shift in cyclone behavior this season. “They are wetter and more destructive because the background climate has shifted,” he states. “Water, not wind, is now the main driver of disaster.”
Natural phenomena such as the La Niña cycle and a negative Indian Ocean dipole have set the stage for these storms. Although the precise impact of climate change on the death toll is still under investigation, it is well-established that warmer air holds approximately 7% more moisture per degree Celsius. This additional moisture, combined with the increased energy from warmer oceans, results in more formidable storms.
“Across south and south-east Asia, storms this season have been carrying extraordinary amounts of moisture,” Koll explains. “A warmer ocean and atmosphere are loading these systems with water, so even moderate cyclones now unleash rainfall that overwhelms rivers, destabilizes slopes and triggers cascading disasters.
These conditions have led to landslides and flash floods, predominantly affecting vulnerable communities living in these precarious environments. Flooding and landslides have devastated villages, compromised roads and railways, and disrupted rescue efforts by cutting off electricity and communication networks.
In Indonesia, damage has been exacerbated by deforestation, with logs washed away in floods. Authorities are investigating whether illegal activities, such as unauthorized logging, have contributed to the disaster, and the environment ministry is questioning logging, mining, and palm plantation firms about their operations.
Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich and co-author of the IPCC report, acknowledges the role of other human factors in amplifying the floods but emphasizes that climate change significantly worsens rainfall. “We have a very clear signal of increases in heavy precipitation with increasing warming, both on a global scale and in Asia,” she asserts. “The influence of human-induced climate change on the intensification of heavy precipitation is well established, and this is a key element in the reported floodings.”
Despite the bleak circumstances, there is a glimmer of hope. Worldwide, the human toll from floods and storms has decreased significantly due to the implementation of early warning systems and evacuation procedures. However, even in middle-income countries that have made strides in reducing fatalities, experts indicate that response systems remain inconsistent.
Alexander Matheou, director of the Asia-Pacific region for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, points out the necessity for improved early warning systems and more effective shelters. He advocates for increased nature-based solutions, such as planting trees and mangroves, particularly in flood-prone areas, to enhance safety. Additionally, he emphasizes the importance of social protection systems that provide immediate aid in the form of cash, food, medicine, and shelter when disasters occur.
Original Story at www.theguardian.com