By Euronews Green
Published on
Scientists are sounding the alarm over supercell thunderstorms as climate change continues to impact Europe. New findings highlight a concerning trend: the frequency and intensity of these storms are set to rise, especially in the Alpine region and parts of Central and Eastern Europe.
According to a study in Science Advances, if global temperatures climb 3°C above pre-industrial levels, the northern Alps could witness a 50% increase in storm activity. These storms, already responsible for significant insurance claims, demand attention for effective future preparedness.
Understanding Supercell Thunderstorms
Supercell thunderstorms differ from ordinary storms due to their unique rotating air column, known as a mesocyclone. This feature grants them their extraordinary power and longevity, often spanning hours and vast distances.
Supercells form in conditions with warm, moist air at the surface, cooler air aloft, and shifting winds with altitude. These factors create atmospheric instability, leading to the storm’s formation. While less common in Europe, they cause substantial damage when they do occur.
The Increasing Threat of Supercell Damage
Severe convective storms, such as supercells, have led to rising insurance loss claims in recent years. In 2023, these storms were the most costly natural hazard globally, amounting to nearly €55 billion in insured losses.
Despite their rarity in Europe, supercells can cause severe localized damage. For instance, in June, L’Hôpital-le-Grand in France experienced hailstones up to 6 cm, damaging properties and vehicles. Another supercell in August wreaked havoc across Italy, with intense hail, rain, and winds nearing 100 km/h causing widespread destruction.
Tracking Europe’s Supercells
Historically, monitoring supercell thunderstorms across Europe has been challenging due to inconsistent national weather radar systems. Monika Feldmann from the Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks at the University of Bern notes that this hinders cross-border storm detection.
To address this, researchers from the University of Bern and ETH Zurich have developed a high-resolution simulation model. This model offers a detailed view of storm development, enhancing understanding and preparedness.
The Alps: A Supercell Hotspot
The new research identifies the Alps as a supercell hotspot, with about 38 storms per season on the northern slopes and 61 on the southern. With 3°C of warming, supercell occurrences in this region could increase by up to 50%, posing risks for Switzerland, Austria, northern Italy, and southern Germany. Meanwhile, the Iberian Peninsula and southwest France might experience fewer storms.
Overall, Europe could see an 11% rise in supercell thunderstorms. “These regional differences illustrate the diverse effects of climate change in Europe,” Feldmann states. The study emphasizes the need for European nations to brace for more frequent and severe weather, urging adaptations in infrastructure, agriculture, emergency services, and insurance systems.
Understanding the conditions leading to supercell storms is crucial for better preparedness, according to Feldmann.
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Original Story at www.euronews.com