With the global climate showing little signs of cooling, experts forecast that 2026 could become the warmest or second warmest year on record. This prediction comes amid a powerful El Niño event coupled with ongoing human-induced climate change.
El Niño, a climate phenomenon that sees the Pacific Ocean release heat into the atmosphere, has bolstered global temperatures, making August 2026 the hottest August on record and September the second warmest. According to Carbon Brief, 2026 stands a 67% chance of surpassing 2024 as the hottest year recorded according to an average of six global temperature datasets.
Temperature Data and Predictions
As we approach January, different organizations that monitor global temperatures may have mixed conclusions on whether 2026 has overtaken the 2024 record. Current projections range from a 97% likelihood of a record-breaking year according to Berkeley Earth, to less than a 20% chance as per the European Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis.
El Niño is anticipated to intensify through the winter, with Carbon Brief projecting 2027 temperatures to reach 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 96% chance of it being the warmest year to date.
Recent Climate Trends
Carbon Brief’s analysis highlights key climate events: August 2026 was the hottest recorded in all major datasets, surpassing the previous record by 0.12°C. The January through September period was the second hottest on record, trailing only 2024. El Niño broke the daily “Niño3.4” region record in September and has maintained unprecedented levels since.
Approximately 22% of the world’s surface experienced its warmest July-September on record, including regions like the tropical Pacific, western Mediterranean, and Iberia. Western Europe faced its hottest summer on record, with Spain setting a new record for September temperatures, surpassing the previous high by 0.7°C.
Global Energy Imbalance
Earth’s energy imbalance, which measures the difference between incoming solar energy and energy radiated back into space, has more than doubled since the 2000s. This imbalance has increased from 0.5 watts per square meter (W/m2) to about 1.25 W/m2, indicating accelerated global warming.
The Arctic’s sea ice minimum tied for the 10th lowest in satellite history, while Antarctic sea ice experienced its third-lowest winter peak.
Future Implications
This year’s powerful El Niño is expected to have a significant impact on global temperatures in 2027. With a 96% chance that 2027 will be the warmest year recorded, Carbon Brief’s projections suggest further warming. These projections are based on historical data correlating El Niño strength with global temperature impacts.
While human-induced emissions are primarily responsible for long-term global warming, El Niño and La Niña events significantly influence short-term temperature variations. The effect of the current El Niño is expected to fully manifest in 2027.
Original Story at www.carbonbrief.org