As global temperatures continue to rise, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has introduced a fresh lens through which to view climate change: the Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). This new indicator, highlighted in their recent report, offers a deeper understanding of the fundamental processes driving global warming beyond the traditional focus on surface temperatures.
John Kennedy, the report’s lead author, explained via email to Grist that while changes in global mean surface temperature are commonly discussed, factors such as El Niño and La Niña can obscure the long-term trends of climate change. The EEI provides a clearer picture, representing the difference between the solar energy absorbed by the Earth and the energy radiated back into space. Kennedy succinctly defined this imbalance as “fundamentally what climate change is.”
As long as this imbalance persists, the Earth will continue warming, leading to ongoing ice melt and rising sea levels, Kennedy noted. Since the 1960s, due to greenhouse gas emissions, the planet has been retaining more energy as heat, setting new records each year for the past nine years. The WMO’s findings also reveal that oceans absorb 91% of this excess energy, influencing other climate indicators like sea-level rise and glacier melt.
The consequences of rising ocean heat extend to food security, affecting marine ecosystems and human livelihoods. Warmer oceans lead to more frequent coral bleaching, habitat degradation, and diminished fishing yields. Coastal erosion from sea-level rise threatens fisheries and the communities dependent on them, while glacier melt can disrupt terrestrial farming.
Jennifer Jacquet, an environmental science and policy professor at the University of Miami, praised the WMO’s focus on the ocean-climate connection. She pointed out that while oceans are often considered carbon sinks, they should be viewed as carbon sponges due to their saturation limits. Jacquet expressed concern that oceans may be “masking” the full extent of climate change by absorbing more heat than is reflected back into space.
Jacquet further explained the complexity of warming oceans’ impact on food security, noting that marine heat waves severely affect farmed fish, which cannot escape unfavorable conditions. For instance, in Chile in 2016, an algae bloom increased mortality rates among farmed Atlantic salmon. While farmed fish typically serve wealthier populations, shifting wild fish populations towards cooler polar waters impacts fishers near the equator, exacerbating food insecurity.
“The oceans are reaching their limit of what they can do to help offset anthropogenic changes,” Jacquet emphasized. She called for scientists and communicators to find effective ways to convey this reality.
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Original Story at grist.org