U.S. and China diverge on climate action and energy progress in 2025

2025 was the second-hottest year on record, despite La Niña. Global carbon pollution increased by 1% and U.S. emissions rose.
Where things stand on climate change in 2026 » Yale Climate Connections

The world navigated through a year of striking climatic extremes and energy advancements, setting new benchmarks in environmental history.

2025 marked the second-warmest year recorded on Earth, surpassed only by 2024, despite the presence of La Niña, which generally cools the surface by bringing cold water to the Pacific Ocean’s surface. This anomaly made 2025 the warmest year featuring a La Niña event, a remarkable deviation from typical climate patterns. For context, the once-unprecedented heat of 1998, driven by a strong El Niño, was overshadowed by 2025 temperatures, being over half a degree Celsius cooler.

Astonishingly, the past 12 years have been the hottest on record, with the last three exceeding preindustrial temperatures by more than 1.4°C.

1986-2025 global average surface temperature categorized by years with a significant La Niña cooling influence (blue), El Niño warming influence (red), neutral conditions (black), and those with a cooling influence from a recent large volcanic eruption (orange triangles). (Data: NASA. Graphic: Dana Nuccitelli)

Most of the heat trapped due to climate pollutants is absorbed by the oceans, which have been warming faster than the Earth’s surface. 2025 continued this trend, with ocean heat content reaching new heights. A recent study revealed that the oceans absorbed energy at a rate akin to almost 10 Hiroshima atomic bombs detonating every second throughout the year.

Despite the increasing urgency of climate change, the U.S. saw a rise in climate-warming emissions in 2025, reversing a downward trend due to various factors, including regulatory rollbacks. Conversely, China has advanced in clean technology, positioning itself to potentially become the leading global economic power.

China’s Clean Energy Surge in Contrast to U.S. Policies

Global carbon emissions rose by approximately 1% in 2025, with the U.S. contributing a 2% increase. Factors such as a cold winter, higher natural gas prices, and increased coal consumption contributed to this rise. Meanwhile, China made strides in clean energy, with more than half of their new vehicle sales being electric, compared to under 10% in the U.S.

China’s efforts in renewable energy are noteworthy, having built over 300 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity, exceeding U.S. historical totals. This surge in clean energy has allowed China to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels for electricity while exporting over $200 billion in clean technologies globally.

U.S. Legislative Opportunities for Clean Energy in 2026

The U.S. Congress has a chance to enact significant climate and clean energy legislation in 2026, despite a historically unproductive session. The focus has been on reforming permitting processes to speed up energy infrastructure development, particularly for electrical transmission lines, which are critical for connecting new clean energy sources to the grid.

However, political obstacles persist, particularly concerning President Donald Trump’s stance on fossil fuels and energy projects. Bipartisan negotiations have been halted due to disagreements over the focus on fossil fuel projects and obstructions to renewable initiatives.

Despite these challenges, clean energy solutions continue to be economically viable, with solar and battery storage leading new energy capacity additions in the U.S. in 2025. The trend is expected to persist, driven by lower costs and quicker deployment.

The International Energy Agency predicts continued growth in global electric vehicle adoption, though the U.S. lags behind. In China, EVs are already cheaper than traditional cars, fueling faster adoption rates.

As the global community embraces affordable low-carbon technologies to combat climate change, China’s leadership in clean energy could bolster its economic standing relative to the U.S. in the coming year.

Original Story at yaleclimateconnections.org