The Impacts of Closing a Leading Atmospheric Research Center
The closure of a premier atmospheric research facility by the Trump administration has sparked concerns over the future of weather forecasting and climate modeling. The decision to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), based in Boulder, Colorado, poses significant questions about preparedness in the face of global warming.
In a statement to USA Today, White House official Russ Vought described NCAR as a source of “climate alarmism,” announcing plans to dissolve the center. The administration intends to eliminate what it calls “green new scam research” while relocating essential functions such as weather modeling and supercomputing.
NCAR plays a critical role in underpinning the reports of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These reports guide international efforts to cut carbon emissions and adapt to extreme weather conditions. Michael Meredith from the British Antarctic Survey commented on the closure, stating, “Shutting it down would lead to greater uncertainty about what our climate future might be and leave us less able to prepare effectively.”
Founded in 1960, NCAR was established to handle atmospheric science projects too extensive for individual universities. With a team of 830 employees, the center conducts research spanning from the ocean floor to the Sun’s core. Its innovative programs include monitoring flood risks, wildfires, and space weather.
NCAR’s contributions to atmospheric science are significant. It developed the GPS dropsonde, a device crucial for understanding tropical storms, and created wind-shear warning systems that have prevented numerous aircraft accidents. The center’s data and modeling support a wide range of research, including the Weather Research and Forecasting Model used for daily weather predictions and regional climate studies.
Jeff Masters, founder of Weather Underground, highlighted the importance of NCAR’s resources, stating that the service would not have existed without NCAR’s software and data. The center also collaborates with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to enhance severe weather prediction capabilities.
The potential disruption of NCAR’s work raises concerns about the accuracy of weather forecasts on digital platforms and TV news, especially as extreme weather events become more frequent. Masters compared the situation to halting R&D funding on the eve of a world conflict, emphasizing the increased costs and risks of being unprepared.
NCAR is also responsible for the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the first global climate model tailored for university research. This model aids studies on global carbon emissions, ocean currents, and climate change impacts. Richard Rood from the University of Michigan noted its widespread use, stressing that its closure would hinder further development and maintenance.
Colin Carlson from Yale University underscored NCAR’s significance, using its models to project vaccine needs and disease spread due to climate changes. “We need NCAR to do our jobs,” Carlson said on Bluesky.
Beyond modeling, NCAR operates modified aircraft for atmospheric research, including a C-130 cargo plane, a Gulfstream jet, and a King Air propeller plane. These aircraft have been pivotal in conducting surveys of atmospheric gases and solar phenomena.
Rood emphasized the importance of NCAR’s research on aerosols for understanding geoengineering’s potential effects. He warned that eliminating such climate research could lead to uninformed decisions on geoengineering and other critical climate interventions.
Original Story at www.newscientist.com