The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran could significantly impact global energy consumption and generation, potentially hindering international efforts to address climate change, according to energy experts.
The panel discussion was organized by Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan think tank, in conjunction with their latest report, “Global Energy Outlook 2026: How the World Lost the Goal of 1.5°C.”
“We may not have a functional Strait of Hormuz coming out of this situation,” stated Sarah Ladislaw, panelist and director of the New Energy Industrial Strategy Center. The 104-mile strait, vital for oil shipments, has been largely closed by Iran since the U.S. and Israel initiated bombing on February 28.
Ladislaw noted that strategic energy stockpiles might need reconfiguration amidst these disruptions. “We’re going to have to see over the next few weeks how it pans out,” she added.
While energy supply disruptions are increasing, many economies are better equipped to handle them. Countries with diversified energy sources, particularly renewables, are more resilient, explained Billy Pizer, president and CEO of Resources for the Future. “We’re going to see increased attention to these things through a security lens, and more policies directed in that way,” he said.
Global temperatures have already surpassed the 1.5°C benchmark set by the Paris Agreement. “Achieving this goal is no longer plausible,” the report states.
Small island nations threatened by rising seas cannot abandon this target, said Jennifer Havercamp, a law professor at the University of Michigan. “I have a lot of trouble picturing the small island states willingly giving up that one and a half degree target, which for them is existential,” she remarked.
Climate forecasters predict a super El Niño could bring record heat mid-summer. To stabilize temperatures, achieving net-zero emissions is crucial, according to Pizer. The energy demands of data centers complicate this goal, with global emissions needing to fall by 13.4% annually to achieve net-zero.
RFF’s analysis, involving data from sources like the International Energy Agency and ExxonMobil, shows emissions could peak between 2030 and 2035. However, significant uncertainty remains depending on energy choices by major countries.
China is shifting from coal to renewables and nuclear energy, while India’s fossil fuel use is rising. In the U.S., despite support for coal, it remains costlier than natural gas. RFF predicts natural gas consumption could grow significantly above 2024 levels by mid-century.
Solar energy presents a “very bright exception,” with deployment costs falling rapidly and solar electricity generation growing by over 35% annually, exceeding projections.
Global conflicts and technological disruptions will necessitate new international alliances and energy agreements, Ladislaw mentioned. “It’s going to be something that emerges from the bottom up as opposed to the top down,” she concluded.
Original Story at insideclimatenews.org