Glacier Bursts in Northern Pakistan: A Call for Better Preparedness
Skardu, Pakistan – In the remote Roshan valley of Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region, Wasiyat Khan, a shepherd, was startled awake by a deafening explosion. Initially fearing a landslide, he soon realized it was the sound of a glacier bursting, a perilous event known as a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF).
Wasiyat and his family, who had moved to higher grounds for grazing, faced the immediate threat of floodwaters consuming their temporary shelter. Despite the isolation at over 3,000 meters, Wasiyat managed to alert the nearby village of approximately 300 people through a mobile phone call, ensuring their evacuation and safety.
“Within 30 minutes, we got a call back saying the villagers had evacuated safely and no lives were lost,” Wasiyat told local media. Unfortunately, Wasiyat’s family lost all their possessions, including essential supplies to withstand the cold near the glaciers. However, they were relieved to learn that despite their own losses, no lives were lost when they returned to find their village buried in mud.
Pakistan, with its approximately 13,000 glaciers, frequently experiences GLOFs. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) highlighted the worsening impact of global warming, projecting significant glacier melting this year. Their assessments indicate below-average snowfall in regions like Gilgit-Baltistan, which may expedite glacier retreat and increase GLOF risks.
To mitigate these risks, Pakistan relies heavily on early warning systems (EWS). These systems, featuring sensors and gauges, collect real-time data for meteorologists to predict and warn about disasters. Numerous EWS sites in vulnerable valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are operational, transmitting data to the Pakistan Meteorological Department.
‘Human EWS’
Despite technological advancements, many residents in northern Pakistan trust their Indigenous knowledge over EWS. Mohammad Hussain, another shepherd, recounted his experience during a flash flood in Skardu Valley. He described the natural cues he observed, like heavy rainfall and unusual roaring sounds, which prompted him to alert the villagers, ensuring their safe evacuation.
Traditional methods like signal fires, gunshots, and mosque loudspeakers are still used to warn of impending dangers. Though these methods may not prevent economic losses, they have proven effective in saving lives.
Pakistan ranks among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries, contributing less than 1% to global emissions. The World Bank reported that Pakistan’s average temperature has increased by 1.3°C since the 1950s, a rate double the global average. Musadiq Malik, the country’s climate change minister, stated in a recent interview with Al Jazeera that glacial floods lead to significant mortality, morbidity, and displacement.
‘Technology alone won’t save lives’
Despite the investment in EWS, skepticism remains due to equipment malfunctions and lack of agency follow-through. A report by the Friday Times highlighted the absence of a real-time connection between human sensors and rescue teams, despite a $37 million project launched in 2017 to enhance EWS.
Concerns about the EWS’s effectiveness were echoed by locals in Gilgit-Baltistan, who felt the systems were imposed without community involvement. Zaki Abbas, a climate journalist, noted instances where local warnings were more effective than the costly systems.
Financial constraints, technical capacity, and communication barriers are among the global challenges for EWS implementation, as outlined by the UNDP. Recognizing acts of bravery, Pakistan’s prime minister awarded Wasiyat and other shepherds $28,000 each for their life-saving efforts.
With climate unpredictability persisting, the reliance on local heroes may continue in place of widespread, trusted EWS.
This story was produced in partnership with the Pulitzer Center.
Original Story at www.aljazeera.com