As climate change continues to impact global populations, some are beginning to rethink their living situations, from rural farms to coastal communities. Professor François Gemenne, a leading authority on climate migration in Europe, has dedicated two decades to studying the effects of environmental changes on human migration patterns.
Initially a niche subject, climate-induced migration was often misunderstood. “People would often ask me about bird or salmon migration. I had to explain that I was focusing on people,” Gemenne recalls. Currently, as a professor at the University of Liège in Belgium, he has been at the forefront of linking human migration to shifts in climate, such as rising temperatures and sea levels.
Gemenne now co-directs the Hugo Observatory at the university, which aims to understand how environmental changes influence population movements and how societies can adapt.
Beyond Traditional Climate Models
With backing from the EU, Gemenne spearheaded HABITABLE, a four-year international research project investigating climate migration’s current realities. This initiative concluded in late 2024 and included experts from Europe, Africa, and Thailand. Through surveys, interviews, and focus groups, they explored public perceptions and responses to climate risks.
Findings indicate a growing awareness of climate-related migration, with many Europeans now recognizing it as a potential issue for themselves.
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The impacts of climate change on migration are shaped by deeper structural inequalities.
“Whereas climate migration was seen as an issue affecting small islands or Alaska, many Europeans now consider themselves at risk, too,” Gemenne noted.
According to the Obs’COP survey, an annual international climate opinion survey by EDF and Ipsos, public concern over climate change is rising. In France, over 20% of the population believes they may need to relocate within a decade due to climate change, though decisions to move are often more complex than climate models suggest.
Understanding Social Tipping Points
Traditional climate-migration models often focus on physical changes like temperature or sea-level rises. HABITABLE researchers proposed a new idea: social tipping points, where decisions by a few households can influence broader community movements. For instance, repeated environmental setbacks like crop failures or floods could lead several families to relocate, triggering further migration.
“There are real discrepancies between public debate and empirical realities for climate refugees,” Gemenne explained. He emphasized the varied responses to climate pressures, influenced by economic, social, and psychological resilience.
Insights from Ghana and the Mekong Region
In Ghana’s northern savannah, Professor Mumuni Abu from the University of Ghana explored how environmental factors drive migration and affect local communities. His team’s research, considering gender, age, and social class, informed policy-making for local authorities and NGOs, particularly benefiting women and youth.
In Southeast Asia, the HABITABLE team examined communities along Thailand’s Mekong River. Led by Sara Vigil of the Stockholm Environment Institute in Bangkok, the study focused on gender and social equity, noting that broader issues like debt and dwindling resources often outweigh climate factors in migration decisions.
Broadening the Dialogue on Climate Migration
Vigil stated that the HABITABLE project expanded the conversation from identifying vulnerable populations to understanding the underlying reasons for their vulnerability.
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I hope HABITABLE can become a living study, carried forward by many local partners, shaping decisions long into the future.
“The impacts of climate change on migration are shaped by deeper structural inequalities, including gender roles, uneven access to resources, and entrenched social hierarchies,” Vigil noted.
Gemenne cautions against hastily labeling areas as “uninhabitable” due to climate change, advocating for a nuanced conversation. “While the impacts of climate change are increasingly real, I’ve seen places where people consider their home uninhabitable, not because of direct experience, but because they’ve been told so. We need a more nuanced conversation,” he said.
The HABITABLE research suggests three key insights for future climate-migration dynamics: the importance of perceptions, the value of social tipping points, and the need for equitable research partnerships.
From Research to Policy
The findings of the HABITABLE team are showcased in a global exhibition on Migrations and Climate at Paris’s National Museum for the History of Immigration until April 2026. This exhibition aims to bring the research to a broader audience and emphasize its policy relevance.
Gemenne expressed hope that this nuanced approach to climate migration will leave a lasting impact, aiding local authorities in designing adaptation and migration policies.
Research in this article was funded by the EU’s Horizon Programme. The views of the interviewees don’t necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. If you liked this article, please consider sharing it on social media.
Original Story at projects.research-and-innovation.ec.europa.eu