In the not-so-distant future, cities may have only a few remaining gas stations, primarily state-owned or subsidized, as the demand for gasoline declines with the rise of electric vehicles. This shift could happen by the mid-2030s in areas with high electric vehicle adoption, such as parts of California.
Electric transportation is poised to lead the market, though gasoline will persist, albeit with diminishing demand. Experts have long stressed the importance of planning for reduced fossil fuel supply chains due to resource shortages and price fluctuations. However, the question remains whether enough attention is given to this critical issue.
A recent study published in the journal Science explores this scenario. Emily Grubert, a sustainable energy policy professor, and Joshua Lappen, a historian and engineer, both from the University of Notre Dame, are the study’s authors. The study urges proactive measures to address the anticipated decrease in fossil fuel infrastructure.
Grubert points to industries like steel in the UK as examples where government intervention was necessary to preserve essential operations. In the U.S., states like California already see reduced fossil-fuel infrastructure demand due to the growing EV market, leading to refinery closures and increased operational costs for remaining gas stations.
While some believe the end of gas stations is not imminent, projections by the International Energy Agency suggest global oil demand will continue to rise until 2050, under current policies. However, factors such as declining demand could challenge the sustainability of fossil fuel industries.
Grubert and Lappen emphasize that small shifts in energy demand could significantly impact infrastructure, potentially leaving consumers struggling to find affordable fuel. Contrary to slowing the energy transition, their study highlights the need for cautious management as new technologies emerge while older ones phase out.
Meanwhile, U.S. policymakers are working to extend the lifespan of existing fossil fuel systems, which can be costly, as seen in the automotive industry. Gas stations, primarily convenience stores, may face challenges in maintaining gasoline sales, even as they continue to thrive in other retail areas.
Jeff Lenard, of the National Association of Convenience Stores, remains optimistic about the long-term demand for gasoline, noting that even with rapid EV adoption, a complete transition would take decades. Nonetheless, national and regional disparities are likely to persist, as observed in places like North Dakota.
The main disagreement between Lenard and the authors lies in the timeline for this transition. The research suggests that even minor reductions in demand could destabilize fossil fuel infrastructure.
Grubert and Lappen advise governments to plan for potential takeovers of failing businesses to ensure access to essential services and resources. This includes prioritizing public needs and maintaining energy delivery systems until they are no longer necessary.
In related news, a court decision favored the Sunrise Wind project, allowing it to continue despite opposition, as reported by Utility Dive. Additionally, a budget bill signed by President Donald Trump cut funding for EV charging infrastructure, as detailed by Inside Climate News.
Efforts are underway to maximize solar power use in California’s factories, as discussed by Canary Media. Also, Chinese EVs might soon make a significant impact in Canada, as noted by InsideEVs.com.
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Original Story at insideclimatenews.org