Amidst rising concerns over potential climate catastrophe, a recent report highlights that 22 out of 34 of Earth’s “vital signs” are in critical condition. The report suggests that without significant cuts in emissions, our planet could veer onto a precarious “hothouse trajectory,” leading to severe climate instability.
Indicators of Earth’s health, such as atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane levels, ocean heat content, sea level changes, and the frequency of extreme temperature days, have reached unprecedented levels. These markers broke records in 2024, and 2025 is projected to follow the same pattern, according to the study published in BioScience.
“This report is both a warning and a call to action,” stated William Ripple, co-lead author and distinguished professor of ecology at Oregon State University. “2024 was the hottest year ever recorded in modern times, and likely the warmest in at least 125,000 years. Ocean heat and ice loss hit record highs. Global surface temperatures exceeded 1.5 C [2.7 degrees Fahrenheit] above pre-industrial levels for the first time over a 12-month period. We also saw record wildfire activity and the most widespread coral bleaching event in recent history.”
Ripple and colleagues initially proposed measuring Earth’s vital signs in 2020. Five years later, they warn of potential tipping points that could push Earth into a self-sustaining “hothouse” state, even if carbon emissions decrease significantly.
Currently, Earth is 2.2 F (1.2 C) warmer than the average between 1850 and 1900. If no additional climate policies are enacted, the planet could warm by up to 5.6 F (3.1 C) above preindustrial levels by 2100, marking a significant shift in the Holocene epoch.
“Scholars argue that this period of relative climatic calm enabled the development of agriculture, permanent settlements, and the rise of human civilizations,” the report notes. “That stability is now giving way to a period of rapid and dangerous change.”
Rising global temperatures raise the risk of crossing climatic tipping points, such as the collapse of polar ice sheets and melting of carbon-rich permafrost. These changes could reduce Earth’s ability to reflect solar energy and store carbon, exacerbating warming and causing further system failures.
“Crossing one tipping point could set off a cascade of other tipping point crossings with the majority of interactions being destabilizing,” warned Ripple and his team. “In the worst case, this could push the climate system onto a hothouse Earth trajectory. This trajectory would lead to a fundamentally different planet with devastating impacts on natural systems and humanity.”
The hothouse trajectory is one of four urgent climate risks identified in the report, alongside biodiversity loss, freshwater declines, and a decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.
Michael Mann, co-author and director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media, emphasized that “There are [all] sorts of consequences of warming, including ice sheet collapse, coastal inundation, the increases in extreme weather.”
Global warming correlates with the carbon released into the atmosphere. To avert the worst effects of climate change, “the focus should be on rapid decarbonization so we stabilize warming below dangerous levels,” Mann suggested.
“Every year of delay locks in higher risks and costs,” Ripple added. “We can limit the damage if we act like this is the emergency it truly is.”
Despite the challenges, there is hope. “Some nations have successfully ended coal use and cut methane leaks,” Ripple remarked. Additionally, deforestation rates in the Amazon have decreased significantly, renewable energy capacity continues to grow, and electric-vehicle sales are rising.
Original Story at www.livescience.com