Climate Change Shifts Malaria Risk in Sub-Saharan Africa, Study Finds

Climate Change Shifts Malaria’s Path Across Africa

Malaria, a deadly disease sensitive to climate conditions, is experiencing shifts in its geographical footprint due to climate change, according to a comprehensive study published in Nature. Researchers have quantified how past and future climate changes affect malaria, especially among children in sub-Saharan Africa, a region with the highest incidence of cases and fatalities. While climate change has marginally increased malaria, future warming could alter its distribution, reducing risks in current hotspots and introducing new risks elsewhere.

“Climate change isn’t just making malaria worse or better—it’s moving it. Whether a place sees elevated malaria risks or reduced burdens under climate change depends on how hot it is today. We see relief in the current hotspots and new risk nearly everywhere else.”

Tamma Carleton, Co-author, Faculty Head of Research for the Climate Impact Lab and Assistant Professor, University of California, Berkeley

In West Africa, countries such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso, and Mali may see a 5% reduction in malaria cases as temperatures rise beyond optimal levels for the mosquito vectors. Some Sahelian nations like Niger and Somalia could witness complete eradication as extreme heat interferes with malaria transmission.

Conversely, cooler regions currently less affected, including southern Africa and high-altitude areas of East Africa, may become more hospitable to malaria. The Ethiopian highlands, parts of Kenya and Burundi, along with Angola, Zambia, and northeast South Africa, could see malaria cases rise by 5%. By the century’s end, the risk might surge by 20% in places like the Rift Valley and coastal southern Africa.

Efforts to curb global warming could change these projections. Meeting the 2°C warming target could prevent 5 additional malaria cases per 1,000 children in southern Africa and more in East Africa’s highlands. Climate mitigation, alongside adaptation, is vital as these regions are currently less prepared to handle increased malaria risks.

“Governments, health systems and communities must adapt to the evolving malaria threat,” notes co-author Christopher Trisos, Director of the Climate Risk Lab. He emphasizes the need for aggressive anti-malaria measures in cooler sub-Saharan regions, highlighting the importance of economic development and global health funding for effective disease control and healthcare improvements.

Colin Carlson, Assistant Professor at Yale University, points out, “Malaria was one of the first health outcomes linked to climate change, but it’s taken a quarter century to be sure which direction things are headed. The big story here is the opportunity for action: so far, elimination efforts have counteracted climate change impacts by nearly 200-fold.”

This groundbreaking research is part of the Climate Impact Lab’s initiative to guide adaptation investments, helping policymakers focus efforts where they are most needed. More information on adaptation strategies can be found in the Lab’s Adaptation Roadmap series and the Adaptation Inventory.