As global temperatures rise, Hawaii might face stronger tropical cyclones despite uncertainties surrounding the overall number of storms affecting the region. Researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa’s School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) have conducted a study exploring these potential changes in cyclone activity.
The study, led by Nicole Murray, a former postdoctoral researcher at the SOEST Department of Atmospheric Sciences, addresses the rare but significant hazard of hurricanes in Hawaiʻi. Murray notes, “This research addresses a hazard that is rare in Hawaiʻi but can have enormous consequences when it occurs.” The recent hurricane season has underscored the potential for severe disruption without storms making direct landfall.
Advanced Cyclone Simulation Techniques
To overcome challenges posed by limited historical data on tropical cyclones near Hawaiʻi, the researchers employed the Columbia Tropical Cyclone Hazard computer model. Developed by Chia-Ying Lee and Suzana Camargo from Columbia University, this model generated extensive synthetic cyclone data from simulations of atmospheric and oceanic conditions across seven global climate models.
This approach allowed the team to analyze storms within 300 nautical miles of Hawaiʻi, focusing on their frequency, intensity, and trajectories across historical and projected mid- to late-century climates. The high-emissions scenario was used to evaluate how cyclone activity might evolve with significant global warming. Special attention was given to cyclones during El Niño and La Niña events, providing insights into potential changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on Hawaiʻi’s cyclone risk.
Impact of El Niño on Future Cyclone Patterns
Historically, El Niño conditions have been associated with increased tropical cyclone activity near Hawaiʻi. However, the study’s late-century simulations suggest that while the influence of El Niño on cyclone wind hazards diminishes, the storm tracks shift southwest during El Niño compared to La Niña years.
“The 2026 hurricane season has provided a powerful reminder of this,” said Christina Karamperidou, co-author and SOEST atmospheric sciences professor. Hurricanes like Lala and Lowell have demonstrated the severe impacts possible even when the storms do not make direct landfall, causing significant flooding and wind damage across the islands.
This research highlights the complex relationship between large-scale climate dynamics and local hazards in Hawaiʻi. Understanding the full spectrum of tropical cyclone risks, including indirect impacts like high surf and landslides, is crucial for community preparedness and resilience.
For more information, see SOEST’s website.
Original Story at www.hawaii.edu