Petro-states push to delay crucial global climate report to 2029

In an unexpected turn of events, the publication of a crucial climate report is facing potential delays as some key players in the global arena push for a postponement. This development has sparked concerns among vulnerable nations that rely on timely climate data to safeguard their futures.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a leading body of climate scientists under the United Nations, is currently convening in Addis Ababa. The agenda includes discussions on their seventh assessment report, AR7, a pivotal document that compiles global climate crisis data.

Originally slated for release in 2028, in time for the UN climate summit Cop33, the report is intended to inform deliberations on governmental efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris agreement target of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

However, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, with support from India and China, seeks to delay the report’s release to 2029. They argue for more input from developing countries into the findings, citing a historical dominance of climate science by the EU, UK, and US, despite a period of diminished US involvement during Donald Trump’s presidency due to policy restrictions.

Many developing nations, which have contributed less to climate science, oppose any delay. The High Ambition Coalition, comprising 34 nations including the EU and the Least Developed Countries group, advocates for the timely release of AR7.

Jess Gasper, a minister from the Marshall Islands, emphasized the importance of unbiased science, stating, “We cannot allow political interests to determine which science the world is willing to hear.”

Jiwoh Emmanuel Abdulai, Sierra Leone’s environment minister, noted the necessity of scientific guidance for the Paris agreement: “The Paris agreement can only deliver on its promise if the best available science continues to guide climate change negotiations.”

Alarmingly, global temperatures have already exceeded the 1.5°C threshold. If current national commitments hold, temperatures may rise beyond 1.8°C, a scenario deemed unlikely due to incomplete national plans for emission reductions.

AR7 follows a tradition of comprehensive climate science reports since 1988, each highlighting the dire consequences of unchecked carbon emissions. Its predecessor warned of irreversible impacts without swift emission cuts. AR7 is expected to emphasize urgency as climate impacts, including extreme weather, become more pronounced.

The IPCC aims to operate independently, yet its “summary for policymakers” requires government approval, which can lead to political interference. The Guardian has reported on Saudi Arabian influence in past assessments.

Despite these challenges, the IPCC remains the foremost authority on climate science. Any delay could weaken the global response, especially as geopolitical tensions threaten progress on emissions goals.

The demand for more contributions from developing countries is seen by some as a stalling tactic. Claudio Angelo from Brazil’s Observatório do Clima commented, “It’s extremely concerning the way the structural issue of equity is being weaponised by some big developing countries.”

Angelo questioned why nations like India and Saudi Arabia, with their technological capabilities, were not contributing more to climate modeling, stating, “They have the money and the technology to send rockets to the moon – why couldn’t they bother to build their own models to be reviewed by the IPCC?”

While some environmental NGOs sympathize with the call for more scientific contributions from developing nations, others are considering supporting the delay. The IPCC has not commented on the situation, and requests for comment have been made to Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, and India.