In a bid to enhance energy security, the government revealed plans to establish a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility, potentially operational as early as next year. This announcement, however, is seen by some as a significant regression in the nation’s decarbonization efforts.
Coinciding with this development, communities across New Zealand, such as those in Mount Maunganui, are grappling with extreme weather events, which experts attribute to the intensifying effects of climate change.
Amid these challenges, the United States has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, and New Zealand is loosening its climate policies. This shift creates a perception of stagnation, despite the global call for stronger climate measures, with 89% of people worldwide advocating for more decisive action.
A Step Back in Climate Commitment
Prior to the US exit, countries responsible for 93% of global emissions had committed to net-zero policies. This percentage has now dropped to 83%. Despite this setback, commitments from 24 US states, along with numerous cities and businesses, aim to adhere to the Paris Agreement goals.
While the US withdrawal represents a significant challenge, it is not the demise of global climate efforts. If nations adhere to their Paris Agreement commitments, global emissions are expected to peak soon. Notably, countries like the United States, United Kingdom, China, Australia, and Canada are already witnessing a decline in emissions, though New Zealand’s emissions have remained static since 2008, doing less than its fair share relative to its population size.
Globally, a race is underway to prevent reaching dangerous climate tipping points while promoting the growth of clean energy, which is at an unprecedented high.
Approximately 70% of the needed emission reductions are expected to come from the energy transition. Even though agriculture is a major source of emissions in New Zealand, energy remains a key focus of the government’s emissions reduction plan.
Innovations to address the intermittency of renewable energy, such as wind and solar, are advancing rapidly. Yet, importing LNG to stabilize electricity supply could hinder investment in cleaner energy alternatives.
Globally, the capacity for solar and wind energy has doubled every three years, significantly reducing costs. Last year, China installed half of all new solar capacity worldwide, and its emissions have now peaked. The European Union generates more power from renewables than fossil fuels, and Pakistan has imported solar panels sufficient for 40% of its needs.
The automotive industry is also shifting, with electric vehicles reaching price parity with conventional cars. Globally, 25% of new car sales were electric last year, with figures soaring to 96% in Norway and 59% in China.
The use of fossil fuels is declining, with oil consumption in the OECD peaking in 2005 and coal in 2008. While demand is growing in developing regions, predictions indicate global oil demand peaking soon, with coal use expected to decline before 2030.
As fossil fuel consumption decreases, shipping emissions are anticipated to drop. Additionally, using current technology to curb methane emissions from oil and gas wells could reduce emissions more than all global air travel.
Geopolitical Forces Driving Renewables
Geopolitical dynamics are promoting a shift towards energy independence, thereby boosting renewable energy growth. As highlighted by Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney recently, nations are increasingly aware of the need for strategic autonomy, particularly in energy.
In response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted gas supplies and elevated prices, Europe paid approximately €650 billion more for fossil fuels—a cost equivalent to 40% of transitioning to a 95% renewable energy system.
In 2022–23, the EU increased its new renewable capacity by 37% over the previous year, enhanced energy efficiency, and devised a plan to reduce reliance on Russian gas.
Globally, there is robust momentum for reducing emissions, with renewable energy now being more economical than fossil fuels while enhancing energy security. New Zealand should thus aim to strengthen its energy independence and rapidly shift from fossil fuel imports.
With the US reducing its involvement in multilateral climate initiatives, New Zealand needs to collaborate with other countries to sustain momentum: maintaining existing treaties and participating in new agreements such as the “roadmap” away from fossil fuels proposed at COP30 in Brazil.
At a minimum, New Zealand should assume its fair share of per-capita emissions reductions to ensure a sustainable future for upcoming generations.
Original Story at theconversation.com