The global consequences of the U.S. conflict with Iran extend beyond rising gas prices.
The largely obstructed Strait of Hormuz is now a “critical failure point for global food security,” according to Máximo Torero Cullen, chief economist of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. He warned this week about the situation.
Before Iran closed the shipping lane, about a third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade traveled through the strait, according to U.N. Trade and Development. The World Bank projects that fertilizer prices could increase by an average of 31 percent this year due to ongoing conflict.
Torero indicated that disruptions in the fertilizer supply chain have resulted in “an unprecedented shock to agricultural inputs,” potentially leading to higher food prices and increased global hunger.
A U.N. analysis suggests even moderate disruptions could escalate hunger and poverty for millions. Prolonged supply chain issues might impact global food consumption for at least four years. Countries heavily reliant on food or fertilizer imports, such as those in South Asia, East Africa, and the Middle East, are especially at risk.
Torero urged immediate actions to support farmers and safeguard global food security, while advocating for a long-term “structural transformation” to reduce fossil fuel reliance.
The energy crisis linked to the Iran conflict exacerbates the fertilizer shortage, as fossil fuels are vital for synthetic fertilizer production. Other experts emphasize the need for sustainable agriculture and resilient supply chains to enhance food security. Jasper Verschuur from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute highlighted local production and renewable energy-driven “green ammonia” as solutions, though these require years of investment.
The food system’s reliance on fossil fuels also affects global logistics. Local supply chains can decouple food prices from volatile energy costs. Benjamin Selwyn of the University of Sussex stressed that “food security” encompasses both import capacity and local production. He advocated for agroecology, which includes diverse cropping, manure use, and precision agriculture to reduce dependency on traditional fertilizers and pesticides.
Experts also caution against increasing biofuel demand from food crops amid the fertilizer crisis. The U.N. warned against boosting biofuel production during resource shortages. Mike Badzmierowski from the World Resources Institute criticized using high-fertilizer-demand crops like corn for biofuels.
Sustainable strategies are crucial in addressing both geopolitical instability and climate-related food security challenges. The World Meteorological Organization projected that strong El Niño conditions could affect crop yields through extreme weather, adding to existing challenges.
“The greater risk lies in overlapping these shocks,” Badzmierowski stated, urging systemic change.
Original Story at insideclimatenews.org