As the global energy landscape shifts, renewable energy continues to outpace fossil fuels despite significant policy shifts in the United States. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil demand may peak “around 2030.” This insight comes from the Paris-based IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook (WEO), released amidst critiques from the U.S. administration under President Donald Trump regarding its oil demand forecasts.
The IEA’s comprehensive 518-page report highlights that, despite varying paces, renewable energy sources, particularly solar photovoltaics, are growing faster than any other major energy source across all scenarios. The agency, which primarily advises developed nations, notes that even as U.S. policy changes might lead to a 30% reduction in renewable capacity by 2035 compared to previous projections, the global expansion of renewables remains robust.
China continues to dominate the renewable energy market, projected to account for 45 to 60 percent of global deployment in the coming decade. Meanwhile, increasing demands from data centers, artificial intelligence, and air conditioning are driving up electricity consumption worldwide.
The release of the WEO coincides with the UN’s COP30 climate conference in Belem, Brazil, an event the U.S. government opted not to attend. The IEA has faced pressure from the Trump administration, which has threatened to withdraw from the agency unless changes are made to its operations. This comes as Trump pursues expanded oil and gas production, reversing the clean energy initiatives of his predecessor, Joe Biden.
– Diverse Energy Scenarios –
The IEA’s WEO explores three scenarios: the Current Policies Scenario (CPS), reflecting existing measures; the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), incorporating announced yet unadopted measures; and a scenario envisioning net zero emissions by 2050. In the CPS, demand for oil and natural gas is expected to rise by 16% through 2035, continuing to increase until 2050.
Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, criticized the CPS as “entirely politically motivated” during a press briefing at COP30 in Belem. She expressed concerns over the U.S. administration’s detrimental policy directions. In response to queries about external pressures, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized the agency’s commitment to incorporating diverse perspectives and addressing political and economic uncertainties.
In the STEPS scenario, oil demand is anticipated to peak “around 2030,” declining to 100 million barrels daily by 2035. Gas demand, influenced by U.S. policy changes and price dynamics, is expected to increase into the 2030s. Regardless of the scenario, the IEA warns that the world is on track to surpass 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, the ambitious target of the 2015 Paris climate agreement.
Under the CPS, temperatures could exceed 2°C by 2050 and 2.9°C by 2100. In STEPS, warming might surpass 2°C by 2060, reaching 2.5°C by the century’s end. However, the net-zero scenario suggests a peak at approximately 1.65°C around 2050, eventually dropping below 1.5°C by 2100.
David Tong of Oil Change International remarked, “The IEA has ‘confirmed that no single country can stop the energy transition, with oil and coal demand to peak by 2030 in its business-as-usual scenario.'” He further highlighted the report’s portrayal of “Donald Trump’s dystopian future,” marked by a resurgence of fossil fuel reliance and high pollution as illustrated in the CPS.
Original Story at themercury.com