Exploring Climate Models: Insights from Steve Easterbrook’s Unique Journey

Exploring the Intricacies of Climate Modeling Through an Engineer’s Lens

The realm of climate modeling has witnessed countless publications, yet a new book offers a distinctive perspective thanks to its author’s unique background. Steve Easterbrook, a former software engineer with a Ph.D. in computing, delves into the complexities of climate models, comparing their quality to the mission-critical software he once worked on at NASA. This book, Computing the Climate, not only addresses the inherent uncertainties of climate predictions but also traces the evolution of climate models over time.

Beginning with an exploration of the history of climate modeling, Easterbrook highlights the foundational work of nineteenth-century scientists like Svante Arrhenius, who developed the first global climate model long before the advent of computers. This approach sheds light on the varying complexities of climate models, countering the criticism that they are too intricate for anyone to fully comprehend. The detailed exploration of early models, including Arrhenius’s work, provides readers with a richer understanding of climate model development.

The book proceeds to document Easterbrook’s extensive visits to premier climate modeling institutions such as the UK Meteorological Office, the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, among others. Each chapter offers insights into various aspects of climate modeling, though some digressions may appear less relevant to the central narrative. Readers might choose to focus on the final chapter for a more concise summary.

While the book is dense with information and requires attentive reading, it is devoid of equations in the main text, yet contains detailed graphs and footnotes for those seeking deeper insights. Such comprehensive material naturally includes minor errors and potential confusions. For instance, a claim about CO₂ levels doubling by the 2030s is debated based on historical data.

Moreover, some black-and-white figures may lead to misinterpretations. An example is Figure 9.1, which suggests a particular storyline as less likely due to its faint shading, although the text clarifies that no preference is stated.

The concluding chapter extends beyond climate modeling, emphasizing the urgent need for action against CO₂ emissions. Easterbrook notes, “Consequences [of CO₂ emissions] are all around us, and the need for urgent action has become clear.” However, he acknowledges that climate models cannot directly attribute individual weather events to emissions nor make policy recommendations. The goal of limiting global warming to two degrees Celsius, or preferably 1.5 degrees, is discussed, with Easterbrook asserting that the world must not exceed burning a trillion metric tons of carbon.

Easterbrook set out to narrate the journey of climate models, their application by scientists, and their reliability. Despite potential criticisms of the word “trust” in climate models, the book offers a nuanced explanation of which aspects of model outputs are dependable. It serves as a valuable resource for readers across the spectrum of opinions on climate policy, including those skeptical of government interventions.