As the world edges closer to a pivotal decade for climate action, nations are grappling with the challenge of reducing their reliance on fossil fuels. At the heart of this global effort is a commitment established two years ago to transition energy systems toward renewable sources in a “just, orderly, and equitable manner.” This ambitious plan involves tripling the capacity of renewable energy and doubling energy efficiency by 2030, essential steps considering that the energy sector is responsible for about 75% of global carbon dioxide emissions.
Recent developments show significant strides in renewable energy, with over 90% of the new power capacity in 2024 stemming from renewable sources, and 2025 witnessing comparable growth. Yet, fossil fuel production continues to surge, particularly in the United States, a leading producer of oil and gas, which is actively encouraging other nations to maintain their fossil fuel consumption.
Although the energy transition was not initially a focal point of the 2025 United Nations climate summit, COP30 in Belém, Brazil, it dominated discussions, highlighting the geopolitical tensions surrounding energy policies. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva used the platform to propose a strategic road map aimed at reducing global dependency on fossil fuels.
AP Photo/Andre Penner)
Despite more than 80 countries, including small island nations like Vanuatu and industrial players like Australia, expressing support for this initiative, resistance from oil-rich nations led by the Arab Group ensured that no formal mention of a “road map” appeared in the final agreement. Nevertheless, proponents are determined to move forward.
The Battle Between Electro-States and Petro-States
Brazilian diplomat and COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago has committed to advancing this cause by developing two strategic road maps: one to combat deforestation and another to transition away from fossil fuels. The details are still being hashed out, but high-level discussions are planned to engage various stakeholders, including countries dependent on fossil fuel revenues.
For nations like Nigeria, where oil exports constitute a major revenue stream, the transition presents a complex challenge. With approximately 39% of its population lacking electricity, Nigeria also has untapped renewable resources which offer potential new economic avenues.
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What a Road Map Might Look Like
The discussions in Belém emphasized the need for a road map grounded in science and aligned with the Paris climate agreement. This would provide pathways for a just transition, taking cues from countries like Brazil and Norway which are developing their own transition strategies.
Brazil aims to create an energy transition fund backed by revenues from oil and gas, despite being a major oil producer and approving new drilling projects. Meanwhile, Norway is planning its economy’s shift away from fossil fuels through a formal transition commission, emphasizing workforce adaptation.
These initiatives may serve as blueprints for other nations as they navigate similar transitions. The European Union, for example, is already implementing policies to reduce fossil fuel demand and aims to source 42.5% of its energy from renewables by 2030.
Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Growth Ahead
Despite global momentum towards renewable energy, fossil fuel investments continue to rise, driven by increasing energy demand. The U.S. stands at a crossroads, with the Trump administration advocating for sustained fossil fuel reliance. Nonetheless, the International Energy Agency predicts that renewables will outpace all other energy sources in growth, with investment in renewables expected to be twice that of fossil fuels in 2025.
However, new investments in liquefied natural gas (LNG) are projected to increase global supply by 50% by 2030, predominantly from the U.S., raising questions about future demand.
What to Watch For
The ongoing discussions and the resulting road map will be critical indicators of global commitment to tackling climate change. The outcomes of these efforts will be closely monitored at the next U.N. climate conference, COP31, to be held in Turkey in 2026, with Australia leading the negotiations.
Original Story at theconversation.com