Climate Change and Lyme Disease: Impact on Baltic and North Sea Regions

Impact of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Northern Europe

As climate change continues to reshape ecosystems globally, the health implications are becoming increasingly evident. One significant concern is its effect on microbial ecosystems, potentially leading to increased disease outbreaks such as Lyme disease (LD). A recent study has aimed to quantify the impact of climate variability on the spread of LD in European countries bordering the Baltic Sea and the North Sea.

In a comprehensive ecological study, researchers explored the correlation between climate change and Lyme disease incidence over the years. They employed a Spearman correlation test to investigate this relationship and utilized Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with a negative binomial distribution to assess changes in LD incidence from 2000 to 2024. The findings revealed a strong positive correlation between climate variables and increased LD rates, particularly when considering the tick life cycle with a two-year lag in climate variables.

One of the key results of the study is the association between increased precipitation and higher Lyme disease rates, with an incidence rate ratio (IRR) ranging from 1.15 to 1.24 after adjusting for covariates. Similarly, a two-year delayed temperature effect showed a comparable relationship, with an IRR range of 1.11 to 1.27. These findings highlight the region’s climate change as a significant factor influencing disease spread and burden in the northern European temperate climate.

The study emphasizes the urgent need for a collaborative approach to address the public health challenges posed by climate change. A comprehensive program that incorporates environmental, human, animal, and vector data is necessary for future research to effectively manage and control the disease.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This study did not receive any funding.

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

The study used ONLY openly available human data from:
– Johns Hopkins Lyme Tracker

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, ensuring confidentiality of patient/participant/sample identifiers.

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided.

I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, including any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.