Authors: Xiaoli Zhang; Lizzie Frost
The 15th Five-Year Plan: China’s Pivotal Phase in Energy Transition
The unveiling of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) marks a significant phase in the nation’s energy transition journey. It lays out the government’s commitment to peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030 and achieving a 7–10% reduction in economy-wide net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2035. As the next five years unfold, the trajectory of emissions and the extent of their peak will play a crucial role in shaping China’s climate and energy policies.
Strategic Policy Framework for 2026-2030
Beginning March 2026, China introduced the extensive 15th FYP policy framework. The national 15th FYP outline directs the course for 2026-2030, supported by the State Council’s strategies on carbon peaking and fostering a beautiful China. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment spearheads the climate change plan, advancing climate governance. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) alongside the National Energy Administration (NEA) establishes sector-specific targets for the energy system, renewable energy, and coal. These initiatives collectively shape the policy framework guiding China’s energy and climate transition until 2030.
Emissions Targets: Ambiguities and Challenges
The path to reaching China’s 2035 emissions targets remains ambiguous. While the plan stipulates peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030, it lacks clarity on specific peak years or emission levels. The absence of definitive annual or five-year emissions budgets complicates the assessment of how the 2026–30 trajectory aligns with 2035 targets. A 17% reduction in CO₂ emissions per GDP unit between 2025-2030 is among the few binding targets, leaving room for emissions growth if economic expansion aligns with targets.
Coal Consumption: Uncertain Future
Coal consumption remains a critical concern, with the 15th FYP allowing room for growth until 2030. Despite earlier plans for gradual reduction during 2026-30, the coal industry plan lacks a national consumption cap or specified decline rate. This permits potential coal use increases throughout the period, although new power system plans suggest coal’s role will transition towards more supportive functions.
Clean Energy: Emphasis on Integration and Utilization
China’s energy strategy increasingly intertwines clean energy with national security and decarbonisation goals. By 2030, the plan targets 3.5 terawatts (TW) of renewable capacity, with a focus on actual energy generation and integration into the grid. Although the plan sets a 90% new energy utilisation rate, this allows for more curtailed generation, highlighting the need for improved grid flexibility and energy storage.
Transport Sector: A Beacon of Progress
In the realm of transport, the 15th FYP sets ambitious goals for new energy vehicles (NEVs), aiming for NEVs to constitute 30% of the passenger fleet by 2030. With NEVs already comprising 12% of the fleet by the end of 2025, the target seems within reach given recent sales trends. Commercial transport also sees significant focus, with targets for new-energy commercial vehicles and heavy trucks emphasizing a shift towards electrification.
Industrial Decarbonisation: Mixed Signals
The 15th FYP sets forth carbon intensity reduction targets for large-scale industries, albeit with decreased ambition compared to previous plans. The strategy highlights zero-carbon industrial parks and data centres as emerging priorities, aiming to harness clean energy for manufacturing and computing needs.
China’s Role in Global Climate Governance
China expresses aspirations to lead in global climate governance, as articulated in the 15th FYP. This marks a shift from participation to leadership, with aims to influence global standards and promote low-carbon technologies internationally. Realizing these ambitions necessitates substantial domestic emissions reductions and enhanced international climate engagement.
Original Story at energyandcleanair.org