India’s Ambitious Path to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions by 2070
India, the third-largest carbon emitter globally in 2023, is on a mission to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070. This ambitious goal is critical not only for India but for global efforts to combat climate change. However, with 60% of its electricity currently generated from inefficient coal-burning power plants, the path to decarbonization poses significant challenges.
The Indian government’s commitment to reducing emissions is offset by its ongoing approval of new coal-fired power plants and the renovation and delayed retirement of older ones. As electricity demand is expected to more than double in the next decade, driven by population growth and increased electrification, finding a sustainable path forward becomes crucial.
Creating a Comprehensive Dataset
To devise a realistic decarbonization strategy, a comprehensive dataset of India’s current power plants was essential. Yifu Ding, a postdoc at the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI), and her team, supported by IHI Corp., developed the first open-source dataset covering all 806 coal power plants across India. This dataset includes information on each plant’s power capacity, efficiency, age, and more, allowing for a detailed analysis of potential decarbonization strategies.
The dataset also categorizes plants by boiler design, distinguishing between “supercritical” and “subcritical” plants, with the former being more thermodynamically efficient. This categorization helps in understanding the potential for retrofitting or repurposing existing coal plants to reduce emissions affordably.
Exploring Decarbonization Scenarios
With the dataset in hand, Ding and her colleagues used the GenX modeling platform to simulate different decarbonization approaches. They explored various scenarios to determine the most cost-effective mix of technologies and policies for meeting electricity demand in 2035 while adhering to potential carbon emission caps.
The four scenarios considered were:
Baseline: Limited development of wind and solar power without retrofitting options, maintaining the current trajectory.
High renewable capacity: Unlimited development of wind and solar power installations.
Biomass co-firing: Retrofitting coal plants to co-fire with biomass, replacing part of the coal fuel.
Carbon capture and sequestration plus biomass co-firing: Adding carbon capture technology to high-efficiency plants along with biomass co-firing.
Key Insights and Challenges
Analysis revealed that, even without carbon limits, wind and solar power would dominate new capacity additions due to their cost-effectiveness. However, to meet rising electricity demand, some new coal plants would still be needed.
The high renewable capacity scenario emerged as the most cost-effective, especially under stringent carbon caps. However, it poses challenges in terms of social equity, as renewable resources are concentrated in wealthier regions, potentially widening economic disparities.
The CCS plus biomass co-firing scenario offers a more equitable solution but comes with uncertainties about its feasibility and costs. While CCS technology has not been widely implemented in India, its potential to reduce electricity costs and improve coal plant utilization is significant.
Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of understanding regional differences and socioeconomic impacts when designing decarbonization strategies. As India progresses towards its net-zero target, balancing cost, feasibility, and equity will be crucial for a sustainable energy future.
Original Story at news.mit.edu