The global commitment to combat climate change, epitomized by the Paris Agreement in 2015, marked a pivotal moment in international cooperation. However, despite this united front, the ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is under imminent threat as fossil fuel consumption continues unabated.
A comprehensive report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), titled “Limiting Overshoot,” reveals that even in the best-case scenario, global temperatures are expected to rise by 1.8C above pre-industrial levels. The report suggests an “overshoot, peak and decline” pathway as the most viable option to eventually bring temperatures back down to meet the Paris goals by the century’s end.
Limiting the shock
The UNEP report highlights the severe implications of surpassing the 1.5C threshold. An increase in extreme weather events, such as the devastating floods in Nepal that resulted in over 1,300 deaths, is anticipated. The threat to small island states, coastal cities, and biodiversity is expected to escalate significantly.
Tom Rivett-Carnac, an architect of the Paris Agreement, warned that overshooting the temperature threshold could trigger runaway tipping points. He emphasized the urgency of minimizing the overshoot duration. “Overshooting is extremely dangerous and raises the risks of runaway tipping points,” Rivett-Carnac stated in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Mohammed Adow from Power Shift Africa stressed the life-or-death stakes of exceeding the 1.5C mark, stating, “Every fraction of a degree above 1.5C means more lives lost, more crops failing and more damage to economies.” He cautioned against complacency, urging immediate action to curb emissions.
‘We need political courage’
Despite the initial optimism following the Paris Agreement, the political resolve to implement necessary changes has waned. Rivett-Carnac noted that while projected temperature increases have been reduced from 3-3.5C in 2015 to around 2.3-2.5C now, political inertia persists. “Temperature projections have fallen from 3-3.5C in 2015 to roughly 2.3-2.5C now, so the progress from Paris has been real,” he said.
The US, in particular, has shown inconsistency, withdrawing from the agreement under President Trump and continuing to promote fossil fuels. The International Energy Agency reports a rise in carbon dioxide emissions to a record 38.4 billion tonnes in 2025, despite the decreasing cost of renewable energy, which is now the most economical option for new electricity projects.
Adow remarked on the disparity between technological advances and political action, saying, “The tragedy is our technological progress has outrun our political progress.” He called for political courage to phase out fossil fuels and support developing countries in their transition to renewables.
Climate rollbacks and AI data centres
The Trump administration’s climate policy rollbacks have hindered global governance efforts, while energy demands, driven largely by artificial intelligence, continue to surge. AI data centers are consuming increasing amounts of electricity, with predictions that their consumption could double by 2030.
Jan Rosenow from the University of Oxford urged tech companies to adopt sustainable practices, noting the potential of circular energy systems to mitigate emissions. “The demand for data centres is rising sharply,” Rosenow explained to Al Jazeera. “And too many being built are powered by fossil fuels. Tech companies need to do the right thing.”
Despite pledges from tech giants to reduce emissions, the demand for AI infrastructure is largely met by fossil fuels, with plans for multiple new gas-fired power plants to support data centers, potentially emitting as much greenhouse gas as Australia annually.
Removing carbon
To realign with the 1.5C target, UNEP underscores the necessity for large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) projects. While traditional methods like reforestation are encouraged, the report also points to carbon capture and storage technologies, though these remain challenging to implement on a large scale.
Rosenow commented on the cost-effectiveness of CDR technologies, stating, “Why? Because it is far cheaper to avoid emitting in the first place.” The emphasis remains on reducing emissions as the primary strategy for climate mitigation.
Original Story at www.aljazeera.com