Rising Temperatures Could Worsen Corn Pest Problem in Mexico
As climate change continues to reshape global ecosystems, a corn pest known as Blissus leucopterus may find more fertile grounds in Mexico. This potential expansion presents significant threats to the country’s agriculture, economy, and food security. A recent study suggests that if current trends persist, the pest could lead to economic damages surpassing US$1.2 billion by 2070, impacting corn production and livelihoods.
The research, titled A Threat to Food Security in Mexico: Climate-Driven Expansion of Corn Devastating Pest and Its Economic Impact, was conducted by experts from UNAM and INIFAP, including Bernardo Bastien, Carolina Ureta, Jesús Cruz López, and Luis A. Gálvez-Marroquín. It is one of the first in Mexico to combine climate, ecological, and economic models to assess the future impact of this pest.
Using advanced modeling techniques, researchers predicted that the regions susceptible to Blissus leucopterus could expand from 12% of Mexico’s land area to up to 16% by mid-century. Rising temperatures and climate unpredictability are likely to create favorable conditions for this pest, allowing it to thrive and reproduce in previously unsuitable areas. This shift is not unique to Mexico; similar patterns have been observed globally. For example, Chile has seen the spotted-wing drosophila becoming more aggressive, while the fall armyworm has spread across continents.
In Mexico, corn is not just a staple food but also a symbol of cultural heritage and economic stability. The pest expansion poses a serious threat to states like Oaxaca, Veracruz, Chiapas, and Tabasco, where rapid pest reproduction could undermine traditional pest control methods. Sinaloa, a key agricultural region, is also at risk of infestation, with potential impacts on national food supplies.
The financial implications are daunting. The study estimates that by 2030, the pest could cause corn production losses of US$600 million, escalating to over US$1.2 billion by 2070 under severe climate scenarios. These figures, representing 0.025% of Mexico’s GDP, do not even account for all indirect costs. “In economic terms, this means the country could face losses equivalent to a recurring catastrophic event,” noted Olvera, highlighting the gravity of the situation.
Beyond economic losses, the pest’s spread threatens Mexico’s agricultural biodiversity. The nation, home to 59 native corn races, risks losing traditional agricultural practices and knowledge. This loss could drive rural migration, further destabilizing local economies and cultural continuity.
Additionally, increased pesticide use poses health risks, with Cruz warning of potential respiratory issues and poisoning from prolonged exposure to agricultural chemicals.
To mitigate these threats, researchers call for robust policy interventions and better pest data accessibility. Recommendations include developing comprehensive monitoring and early warning systems, bolstering phytosanitary surveillance, and promoting sustainable pest management. Emphasizing the importance of integrating traditional farming techniques, they stress the need for a coordinated strategy that leverages scientific research, public policy, and local expertise to enhance the resilience of Mexico’s agricultural sector against climate change.
Original Story at mexicobusiness.news