Amidst a surge of dry lightning across California, numerous wildfires have ignited, highlighting the increasing threat of lightning-induced fires in the region. A recent study suggests that as the climate continues to warm, such incidents may become more frequent.
According to John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at UC Merced involved in the study, these lightning storms can dramatically escalate the fire season. “These are the sort of events that can really allow the fire season to turn on a dime,” he explained. Study details.
After a storm unleashed thousands of lightning bolts across the state from Tuesday into early Wednesday, Cal Fire battalion chief David Acuña confirmed 45 new fires started within Cal Fire’s jurisdiction. The storm was marked by dry lightning — strikes with minimal rainfall.
Chris Vagasky from the National Lightning Safety Council estimated nearly 11,000 strikes occurred over 31 hours, spanning the state from Fresno to the Oregon border. Yet, while most wildfires are human-caused, lightning has been responsible for some of California’s largest fires, accounting for over a third of the area burned in recent decades, according to federal data analyzed by Abatzoglou.
Many of the fires are currently raging in the Sierra foothills, including the TCU September Lightning Complex, which has already consumed nearly 14,000 acres and affected the historic town of Chinese Camp.
The study published in Earth’s Future reveals that, between 2030 and 2060, western states might experience up to 12 additional days of ground lightning strikes annually. The most significant increases are expected in eastern Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana, but parts of northeast California could also see an uptick.
As climate change leads to hotter and drier conditions, lightning is more likely to ignite fires in parched lands, explains Dmitri Kalashnikov, the study’s lead author. “You get this very hazardous situation in terms of fire risk, where you have lightning that hits the dry vegetation,” he noted.
‘We have to be ready’
Zeke Lunder, a pyrogeographer, notes that under certain conditions, lightning fires can act beneficially like prescribed burns. However, when dry lightning sparks multiple fires simultaneously, it poses significant challenges.
Cal Fire is enhancing its fire detection measures through partnerships, such as their collaboration with UC San Diego’s ALERTCalifornia, which utilizes AI and over 1,100 cameras to monitor potential fires.
“We have to be ready, because there was little to no notice that this lightning was coming in,” Acuña emphasized. “If it happened once, it can happen again. And so we maintain readiness to respond anywhere within the state to protect people, property, and resources.”
Kalashnikov remains vigilant, acknowledging that while a climate-fueled increase in lightning hasn’t been observed yet, it poses an imminent risk. “We are making these predictions for the near-term future,” he said. “These changes in terms of increased lightning are going to happen soon.”
Original Story at calmatters.org