Electric Vehicle Sales Surge Globally, Led by China and Emerging Markets
London and New York, June 16, 2026 – As the electric vehicle (EV) industry accelerates, BloombergNEF’s latest Electric Vehicle Outlook (EVO) predicts that by 2026, 27% of global car sales will be electric, climbing to 52% by 2035. This marks a significant rise from 9% just five years ago.
The growth in EV adoption is driven by declining lithium-ion battery prices, the introduction of more affordable EV models, and increasing adoption in emerging markets. The ongoing conflict in Iran and subsequent fuel price hikes have also spurred consumer interest in EVs, although it remains to be seen whether this will translate into higher sales in the short term.
China remains the dominant force in the global EV market, making up a substantial portion of worldwide EV sales. Notably, nearly 64% of cars sold domestically in China are electric.
Emerging markets are seeing a surge in EV demand, sometimes surpassing that of the U.S. In Singapore, nearly half of all vehicles sold in 2025 were electric, with Vietnam and Thailand following at 39% and 27%, respectively. Turkey saw its EV sales more than double in a year, reaching 22% of the market. Key factors for this growth include efforts to reduce oil imports, openness to Chinese automakers, and supportive EV policies.
Chinese brands have greatly influenced EV adoption in places like Thailand, where they accounted for 88% of EV sales in 2025. However, countries like Vietnam have seen significant growth without heavy reliance on Chinese automakers. Vietnamese domestic company VinFast achieved 98% of the EV market share in 2025. Similarly, in Turkey, the local brand Togg was the second-largest EV seller after BYD.
The growing presence of EVs is reshaping global oil consumption patterns, with road fuel demand expected to peak in 2029. According to the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS), fleet electrification and fuel efficiency improvements will reduce road fuel demand by 25.8 million barrels per day by 2040, which is significantly more than reductions in other sectors such as aviation and marine combined.
Still, BloombergNEF has adjusted its EV adoption forecasts downward for China and the U.S. due to policy changes and market dynamics. In China, tighter requirements for EV incentives and market maturity have slowed sales. Meanwhile, the U.S. experiences a 19% drop in sales this year due to reduced federal support and policy rollbacks.
Affordability continues to be a barrier to widespread EV adoption, with battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in Europe costing 17% more than their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts. However, this is an improvement from a 34% premium in 2024.
The cost of EV batteries remains a critical factor, with prices still high in many regions compared to combustion vehicles. China leads in battery manufacturing due to a mature supply chain and competitive market conditions, resulting in the lowest prices globally. Other regions like North America and Europe face challenges in reducing costs to match China’s efficiency.
Aleksandra O’Donovan, Head of Electric Vehicles at BloombergNEF, said: “While EV adoption continues to advance globally, the pace of the transition is becoming increasingly uneven across markets, driven largely by policy changes in the US and a maturing market in China. In spite of the unevenness, it is encouraging to see that the longer-term trend towards electrification remains intact, driven by improving vehicle economics, falling battery costs and rapid adoption across emerging markets.”
Despite the rapid rise in EV sales, they are not expected to surpass ICE vehicles on the road until 2047. By 2040, over 1 billion passenger cars still emit tailpipe emissions, and a significant share of trucks, vans, and buses remain combustion-engine vehicles.
Andrew Grant, Head of Intelligent Mobility at BloombergNEF, said: “Slow fleet replacement rates in many markets mean that there are still a lot of combustion vehicles on the global road in the long-term, creating a headache for policymakers aiming for net-zero transport. That said, even meeting the demands of the electric vehicles that our outlook sees on the road creates plentiful opportunities, including roughly $2.2 trillion in spending per year on vehicles alone by 2035, and another $524 billion in investment in the required charging infrastructure between now and 2035.”
Additional insights from the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026 include:
- EV electricity demand is projected to increase significantly, with consumption rising from 367 terawatt-hours in 2025 to over 2,700TWh by 2040. Integrating EVs into the grid will require over $800 billion in global investment by 2040.
- The demand for stationary storage is reshaping the battery industry, drawing interest from automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen. The outlook for stationary storage battery demand has increased by 27% compared to last year’s forecast for the period between 2025 and 2035.
- City buses are leading the electrification charge across vehicle segments, with over half of municipal bus sales being electric in more than 20 countries as of 2025. This figure is expected to reach 60% by 2030.
- Electric van sales are predicted to make up 34% of global sales in their segment by 2030, whereas medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks are expected to hit about 17% of global sales in 2030.
- Shared autonomous vehicles, or ‘robotaxis’, are still in early commercialization stages but cover much greater distances per vehicle than human-driven shared vehicles. For example, Waymo’s vehicles in the U.S. achieved a run-rate of nearly 110,000km annually by December 2025.
BloombergNEF clients can find the full report and data viewer on bnef.com and the Bloomberg terminal.
Original Story at about.bnef.com